TTU Dept. of Mechanical Engineering epidemic model indicates COV - FOX34 Lubbock

TTU Dept. of Mechanical Engineering epidemic model indicates COVID-19 here to stay

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LUBBOCK, Texas -

Professors in Texas Tech University’s Department of Mechanical Engineering developed a new predictive model indicating how long COVID-19 will be with us.

The report indicates if a state stays in continued lockdown, COVID-19 infections will persist for at least two years. Without a lockdown, researchers predict COVID-19 will surge again each year like the flu. 

Researchers specializing in engineering and medicine have submitted a predictive model focusing on six states: California, Louisiana, New Jersey, New York, Texas and Washington. 

Unlike other models, study authors say this one takes asymptomatic spread into consideration. That data shows even if a state enters and exits lockdowns under federal guidelines, the infection will persist. 

Researchers say while earlier lockdowns could have saved lives in New York, it wouldn't have helped much in Texas. The findings show strict lockdown compliance, plus public masking, social distancing and contract tracing will help slow the spread of the infection. 

It concludes by October 1, there could be as many as three million COVID-19 cases and 235,00 deaths in the U.S. alone. 

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