Storms pushing south, severe threat diminishing - FOX34 Lubbock

Storms pushing south, severe threat diminishing

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update 10:26 p.m. - The storms weakened some as they moved through Lubbock and the central South Plains. And, at this writing, there are no severe warnings. We don't have any significant reports of damage.  

Greatest rain total on the Texas Tech Mesonet is Sundown at 1.07". Around Lubbock County totals ranged from more than 8/10" at Wolfforth to about a third of an inch around much of the city.

The severe threat is trending lower now. There could still be some more showers next few hours. We'll look ahead to the possibility for a few isolated storms Tuesday afternoon.


update 8:48 p.m. - A large severe thunderstorm warning has been issued for much of the area, including the city of Lubbock. The most intense portions of these storms can produce up to golf ball-size and 60mph wind. The wind gusts may be a little stronger than that moving into west Lubbock now. Golf ball-size hail was reported from Levelland up to near Whitharral. Ride this storm out in a sturdy structure. 


update 7:44 p.m. - Severe thunderstorm warning for Lamb County, including Littlefield, until 8:15p. Potential for golf ball-size hail within the core that'll probably pass just north of town, along with 60mph wind. Storm moving SE 30mph.


update 6:46 p.m. - A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued north of the earlier one. This covers Lubbock, the South Plains and much of the region until Midnight Central. 

 

The main risk is large hail and damaging wind. It may transition to more of a wind threat later tonight. As of this writing, storms are over the northwestern South Plains, with more back into New Mexico. Often time when we see this set-up the storms hold together as they encounter better moisture and the low-level jet, or wind just off of the ground, ramps up. Storms could get closer to Lubbock around 9.


updated 5:43 p.m. - A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for Southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin until Midnight. This is for areas in green below, Hobbs to Lamesa to Gail and point south.

 


In the watch area storms are possible this evening, some which could produce hail to 2" diameter and gusts over 60mph.

We've had a few showers and thunderstorms across the area this afternoon. As we head through the evening into tonight we expect to see more showers and storms. There is pretty good coverage of storms in New Mexico, with an upper-level disturbance headed this way.

Low pressure in NE New Mexico has drawn a steady SE wind through the day, which has made it a little more humid. Here is the current dew point. While not muggy, with the temperature in the 70s, dew point in the 50s should be enough to support stronger storms. The S/SE wind just off of the ground will increase next few hours, helping to bring in more humidity. The humidity is backed up into Eastern New Mexico. 

THIS EVENING: We expect more storms to move across the area. It probably won't be everyone getting rain, but it's a good chance at every location in our area. Some of these storms may become severe, the main risks being large hail and damaging wind. If storms congeal into a line later this evening, that will pose more of a wind risk.

It's possible an isolated tornado could develop late afternoon/early evening if it can interact with a surface boundary and find better wind organization in the lower levels.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy, low in the upper 50s.

TUESDAY: There is a slight chance for storms developing late afternoon. It'll be warmer, high in the mid 80s. Wind SE/S 5-15mph. We're not certain storms will develop. There will be a cap, or layer of relatively warmer air, aloft. But with it warmer than today, along with some humidity, it could be enough for a few storms within the area. If storms can develop, they could become strong.

WEDNESDAY: The dry line will likely mix east of Lubbock, leading to a hot and dry day here. To the east, there is the potential for severe thunderstorms off of the Caprock, including Paducah, Floydada, Crosbyton and Jayton.

LOOKING AHEAD: It'll probably be hot and dry Thursday and Friday. Now that's "probably" because the dry line may not mix as far east as computers advertise, leading to at least a chance for storms off of the Caprock, east of Lubbock. Saturday more of the area will be in play with humidity in place. And next week looks fairly typical for May, with the opportunity for some storms on a few days. 

Check back here for updates through tonight, as well as on FOX34 and on the radio. Bobby will have the next forecast update tomorrow morning.
-Matt

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