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updated 5:41 p.m. - We earlier had some small hail and brief heavy rain in Lubbock. Now storms are strengthening some as they move farther east over the Rolling Plains. A storm near Dickens has the potential for 1.25"-diameter hail. Storms should be east of U.S. 83 in a couple hours and it'll be pretty quiet for the area.
updated 2:06 p.m. - The Storm Prediction Center has issued a tornado watch for the eastern South Plains and Rolling Plains until 10 p.m. It is the blue counties below, roughly Silverton to Lorenzo to Gail and points east. The primary risk with any storms today will be large hail. But a few tornadoes will be possible.
A watch means there is the potential for severe weather. Warnings are issued when severe weather is happening.
posted 11:14 a.m. - As of late Saturday morning we're watching the potential for some severe thunderstorms today. Like mentioned yesterday, the coverage isn't expected to be great. But it does look like we'll have the ingredients for some storm organization.
The dry line is well west in New Mexico. That is the division between dry air west and humid air east. We expect the dry line to mix east through the day, but now it looks like it may stay farther west...possibly near I-27/U.S. 87. The map below shows more humid air in the 50s and 60s and drier air with lower numbers. The humid air is where storms are possible...you at least have the humidity for storm development, but not everyone will get a storm. The map will update continually.
East of the dry line is where some storms should develop this afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center's mid-morning outlook shows the risk is greater over the Rolling Plains, in orange below. This is a level 3 out of 5. The risk is lower Plainview to Lubbock to Lamesa, but isn't zero. A factor in the lower risk is that we just aren't sure where exactly the dry line will be when a few storms will develop. And also, the coverage of storms overall will stay fairly low.
The main risk with storms today will be hail of 1" to 2" diameter, though strong wind is possible. An isolated tornado is possible within the region, though that potential is lower.
West of the dry line it'll become windy, W 18-28mph. and dry with more sun. To the east it'll be more humid with some more clouds, wind SE/SW 15-25mph. High in Lubbock today near 80.
And latest data still shows a powerful front moving through tomorrow, with the temperature falling fast late afternoon into tomorrow night. A hard freeze is likely Monday morning.
Check back here for updates as we go through the day, as well as on TV, radio and social media.