Major changes are in store this week for Lubbock and the South Plains. In fact, this will likely be the first time we see significant accumulations of snow this season. First, we have another mild day in store.
TONIGHT: Mild, mostly clear, low near 40. Wind SW 10-18mph.
TOMORROW: Mostly sunny with more clouds late, high near 71. Wind SW 12-22mph.
MUCH COLDER: A powerful front will slide across the area early Tuesday morning, with a strong north wind. The high of the day will likely happen early in the morning, holding in the 30s and upper 20s through the afternoon. Wednesday morning the wind chill will be around zero, actual air temp in the teens. Wednesday afternoon it'll struggle to climb above freezing.
It is going to turn much colder. Precipitation isn't as certain, but appears likely at this point. A strong upper-level trough will move in from the west, providing good lift for showers. It is important to note that we expect snow in the region, but there are still some differences in where computers show the storm system moving...and where the snow will fall. Several models and model runs have the Lubbock and South Plains area receiving snow. There have been a couple models that keep the snow farther southeast, from Midland to Abilene. But it looks like those are outliers...majority of computers and ensembles (multiple runs of the same model with slight variations) show some snow here.
At this point we think it's likely much of our area will get some snow. It may start as rain Tuesday afternoon, but if it does, it'll quickly change to snow. That'll run from late Tuesday to early Wednesday.
It's a little early for reliable snow totals, but we believe 2" to 4" will be common around the area, probably less to the northwest and more to the southeast. And at least an inch of snow should fall across a pretty wide stretch of the region, not just our area. This storm system will be strong enough for some totals above 4".
While the snow is expected to end early Wednesday, because it'll stay cold, roads may be slick through the day and all the way into Thursday morning.
It'll trend milder late this week.
Be sure to get the latest forecast update with Bobby Johnston in the morning here and on Good Day Lubbock.