updated 11:18 p.m. - Storms have exited the area. We'll likely see fog developing through sunrise. Then we'll watch for perhaps a few isolated storms late Saturday afternoon and evening, then a better chance for storms Sunday.
updated 6:24 p.m. - We've had scattered severe storms across the western part of our area, producing 1" to 1.5"-diameter hail. Around Lubbock a storm moved through that wasn't severe with heavy rainfall, lightning strikes and small hail. Most storms are moving from NW to SE.
More storms are expected next few hours. The severe watch goes until 11 p.m. Main concern is still hail, but not every storm will be severe. We could even see additional storms move across the area early in the morning.
updated 3:35p - A severe thunderstorm watch has been posted until 11 p.m. for Lubbock and the western half of our area. We currently have a couple warnings, for storms in SE Parmer and S Bailey counties. The one in Parmer County is most organized now, possibly with golf ball-size hail. Storms today are moving to the ESE.
posted 2:54 p.m. - The pattern will be fairly active next several days. You probably won't get a storm each day, but we should have at least a few storms in the South Plains area each afternoon through middle of next week.
THIS AFTERNOON: We're starting to see some clearing in the clouds, allowing the temperature to climb into the 70s, even into the 80s at Hobbs. There's been more sun over Eastern New Mexico, which is where storms have developed. The dew point is in the mid 50s northwest to low 60s southeast. This is enough humidity for some organized storms. And there is some wind shear in place.
Scattered thunderstorms will spread from west to east across the area rest of this afternoon into this evening. Some storms may turn severe, the main risk being large hail. Storms should be exiting the area to the east by late evening.
SATURDAY: Cloudy in the morning, a good amount of sunshine in the afternoon. High near 75, wind SE 5-15mph. We have a slight chance for storms late afternoon into the evening. The chance is lower than today.
LOOKING AHEAD: The storm chance trends higher late Sunday and Monday. And with the temperature reaching the 80s with humidity in place, there will be more energy available. This means severe storms will again be possible.
We'll keep at least a slight chance for storms in place through late Tuesday. Latest guidance has shifted the dry line farther east starting on Wednesday, which would lead to dry and warm weather here. If the trends reverse then we'll put storms back in the forecast, but for now it looks like storms will be well east of Lubbock Wednesday and Thursday. With another storm system over the Southwest late in the week, there may be some more storms either late in the week or next weekend.
Check back here for updates.