updated 9:36 p.m. - Storms have moved out of the area, the risk for severe weather is over tonight. It'll be mostly clear, though we may see some fog early in the morning.
updated 7:40 p.m. - The one severe storm in the area right now missed Floydada to the north and has weakened some. That's good news, since it likely produced golf ball-size hail near Muncy and Lockney. It was turning right and showing some increased rotation but has weakened a bit last 15 minutes. It now poses a threat of 1" hail as it moves east. Another storm/hail core is passing over northern Motley County.
Over the rest of the area it's quiet. The dry line is roughly along I-27/US 87, meaning good humidity is east of it. But with the loss of daytime heating and no additional upper support expected, the storm chance is fading quickly.
updated 6:34 p.m. - A severe storm with potentially up to golf ball-size hail is moving into Lockney in NW Floyd County now. Severe warning for E Hale, Floyd counties until 7:15 p.m.
updated 5:34 p.m. - We're watching one severe storm moving across Hale County. It continues to pose a threat of large hail and may get to Plainview around 6p.
posted 4:49 p.m. - A severe thunderstorm watch goes until Midnight for Lubbock and much of the South Plains. Primary risk is large hail.
Just before 4:30 a tornado was reported near Fluvanna. That storm is moving NE into Kent County. Other severe warnings have been issued for large hail potential.
FORECAST UPDATE: Yesterday and evening this morning we expected the dry line to move well east of Lubbock, leading to a risk for severe storms along and east of US 83. That has not happened. In fact, the dry line has stayed west near the state line. There is a warm front that's been south of Lubbock (we had cool and cloudy weather most of today) that's now lifting north. Where we have the combination of the temperature in the 70s/80s and dew point upper 50s/60s there will be plenty of instability for storms to organize. Here are current observations:
We expect some thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening. Some will likely turn severe, with the main risk being large hail. Storms will move to the northeast. The more significant severe risk is east of our area, with a tornado watch posted from North Texas to SW Missouri.
Storms will move from SW to NE our area late this afternoon into early evening.
Tomorrow will be warmer and sunny. Next chance for storms arrives at the end of the week.