VERY DRY AFTERNOON: Relative humidity has dropped below 5% this afternoon, with the temperature in the 90s and a gusty SW wind. Dusty has also kicked up across the region. A red flag warning continues until late tonight for the dangerous fire weather conditions.
TONIGHT: Breezy, the wind will shift out of the north 12-22mph. If there are any fires ongoing, the wind shift will make it difficult for firefighters. Low near 45, clear.
NEXT FEW DAYS: It'll be cooler and a bit calmer. In fact, tomorrow looks beautiful. High near 73, wind N/NE 5-15mph. Thursday near 75, mostly sunny.
It'll be breezy Thursday afternoon, but from a more favorable direction...SE 12-25mph. That'll bring up more humidity.
A few showers and storms are expected to develop in Central/Eastern New Mexico Thursday afternoon. A few might get into our area Thursday night.
STORM CHANCE: A strong upper-level storm system will move across Arizona and New Mexico next few days. Unlike most storm systems we've seen past several weeks, this one is dropping farther south. It's a more favorable path for us to get some rain.
In fact, the chance for rain and storms looks pretty good late Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. The exact timing depends on the arrival of that storm system. One model is a bit slower and holds the better rain chance until early Saturday morning.
We're also watching the severe weather potential Friday. There will be a lot of shear but not much instability. It may be too cool and too dry for severe storms in our area. But it's too early to either confirm or rule out a severe risk. Right now we're forecasting mid 60s and mostly cloudy Friday, SE-S wind 20-30mph.
The Storm Prediction Center's severe outlook for our area has shifted a little farther south...roughly Lubbock and points south and west Friday, in yellow below. We'll be watching the computer guidance next few days to better isolate where that severe risk is.
We'll keep a decent chance for showers and storms into the first half of Saturday. It'll also stay fairly cool, low to mid 60s Saturday.
NEXT WEEK: It'll be a slow climb on the temperature with a lot of sun each day.
Hope you have a great rest of your day. Bobby will have a full update to the forecast here early tomorrow.